COVID-19: CDC Reveal Fatality Rate And It’s Closer To The Flu Than Experts Predicted

Credit: Governor Tom Wolf / Flickr

The earlier predictions for COVID-19 reported that the fatality rate would be between 2-percent and 4-percent.

March 3: The World Health Organization (W.H.O) reported that the world’s crude mortality rate was 3.4-percent. The crude mortality rate only factors in confirmed COVID-19 cases. Excluding people who recovered from mild and lesser symptoms.

March 4: Dr. Anthony Fauci, the infections disease expert who is part of the White House Coronavirus Task Force said: “If you look at the cases that have come to the attention of the medical authorities in China, and you just do the math, the math is about 2 percent.”

Early April: The Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated that the crude fatality rate was 4-percent.

To calculate the crude mortality rate, it is the number of reported deaths divided by the reported COVID-19 cases. To calculate the infection mortality rate, it is the number of reported deaths divided by the number of total infections.

Late May: The CDC reveal COVID-19’s true infection fatality rate (IFR). The report reads that in the United States the IFR is 0.26-percent. The infection mortality rate of seasonal influenza is below 0.1%.

This is between eight and fifteen times less than the original estimates, not including the wild earlier predictions that forced the nation into lockdown.

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COVID-19 Fatality Rate

The big difference between IFR and Crude fatality numbers is that the IFR focuses on every COVID-19 infection, including mild and lesser symptoms, even asymptomatic cases. The IFR number is often lower because it factors in everyone.

Daniel Horowitz, a senior editor at Conservative Review noted: “For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26%.”

No one is denying that the virus is serious for those with underlying conditions and the elderly, but a 0.26-percent chance of fatality is closer to influenza’s 0.1-percent than the original estimates.

Horowitz concluded: “Ultimately, we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.”

If the Stanford University projection of 0.2% was used by medical experts, rather than the terrifying estimation that predicted up to 2-million people would die in the United States, surely the White House Coronavirus Task Force would not have recommended a nationwide lockdown.

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